This week’s picks: 49ers and Patriots
I’m not even sure there should be a full length explanation after this headline. The 49ers, with the top defense left in the NFL, and the Patriots, with the top offense left in the NFL, will bring two worlds together for this particular scribe. I’ve watched the 49ers my whole life — before I even cared for football (many, many years ago) — and I’ve watched the Patriots intently for the past three seasons. They are in my opinion the best two teams left, regardless of conference, bias included.
(My head is spinning with thoughts on the possibility … the probability … that the Patriots will play the 49ers, let alone in the Super Bowl. I feel like Quagmire in Family Guy … giggity.)
The tough part here is that I think the 49ers have a greater chance to lose against an amazing New York Giants team that has been balling out in the last month than the Patriots do against the Baltimore Ravens who make way too many mistakes for a team of its caliber. However, I do think the 49ers prevail. They showed me something against the New Orleans Saints. There’s some mustard in that bottle that we didn’t know was there before. And now that the whole world has had a chance to see the gusto in which Alex Smith can play, you have to look at the 49ers’ offense as equally competent as the team’s defense. It’s a tough sell against a Giants team that features Eli Manning and a defensive line to die for. But these aren’t cavalier times. It’s one side or the other and I’m going with the hometown team.
For my reasons why I’m picking the Patriots, check out my Patriots-Ravens predictions. That should tell you everything you need to know.
Giants at 49ers
My pick: 49ers
Ravens at Patriots
My pick: Patriots
Last week: 3-1
Postseason: 5-2
Regular season: 135-83 (61.9 percent)
My divisional playoff picks: Patriots, 49ers, Texans and Giants
Are you shocked already? You should be. I’m going on a limb here, both because of a rookie quarterback, some new faith in Alex Smith and the New York Giants.
Make no mistake about it, this is a weekend in which a lot of faith is necessary. The 49ers will not have an easy go of it against the New Orleans Saints. There’s no team hotter in the NFL right now. What Drew Brees can do with a football makes my eyes light up like a little kid. But the same can be said of the 49ers’ defense. There’s no team like it in the NFL, and also in that sense, there’s no team like the 49ers that changes the offensive strategy of an opponent. Opposing teams literally have to give up their running game. With an eye on defense, and the unbelievable possibility that Alex Smith will surprise, I see the one of three big upsets occurring in the divisional playoffs. Yup, I went there.
Saints at 49ers — See above.
My pick: 49ers
Broncos at Patriots — I happen to think that the Patriots are a better team than the Steelers offensively in every fashion. So much better than the Steelers, and Broncos, that I believe Denver’s defense will find itself on its backside by midway through the second quarter. The onus will be on Tim Tebow to save his team by helping the Broncos put up more than 30 points, something they haven’t done since early December. The Patriots average 32.1 points per game, almost two touchdowns more than the Broncos (19.3). In the last go round, everything came down to turnovers. This time, everything will be much more offensively oriented. At least that’s my prediction. (Depending on how you look at it, that could mean defensively oriented.) The Patriots win that battle.
My pick: Patriots
Texans at Ravens — On the road against a rested and feisty Baltimore Ravens team, I envision the T.J. Yates led Texans beating the Ravens. Not because of the rookie though, but because of its phenomenal defense (amazing effort against the Bengals) and the lack of a passing game that has come to characterize the Ravens’s offense (No. 19 in the NFL) in the final weeks of the season. I don’t believe a weekend away from the gridiron can correct their problems. On the other hand, there’s game film on these two from Week 6, a 29-14 win for the Ravens, when Joe Flacco was still pitching like a top-flight quarterback and Matt Schaub was healthy. The difference now, it seems to me, is that one team is hot and the other is not. Any team that struggles with the Cleveland Browns and falls to the San Diego Chargers isn’t deserving of going forward from this point. But then I also said any team that loses three in a row to end the season is bound for a plane ticket home too.
My pick: Texans
Giants at Packers — It is my humble opinion that when an awesome defense faces an awesome offense, and a very good offense faces a mediocre-to-poor defense, the team with the awesome defense will win. What we saw in wild-card weekend was an awesome defense, fiery and dominant in every respect. The Packers are an amazing team, but even in their 38-35 win over the Giants in Week 13, they allowed an alarming amount of points. Imagine if the Giants can wipe at least one touchdown off the board? Don’t imagine it. It’s going to happen.
My pick: Giants
Last week: 2-2
Regular season: 135-83 (61.9 percent)
My NFL wild-card picks: Picking Bengals, Steelers, Saints, Giants
Bengals (9-7) at Texans (10-6) — Despite losing to the Houston Texans, and failing to win a game this season against a team that is plus .500, the Bengals have something that the Texans don’t: An injury free quarterback. In the playoffs, unlike any other time of year, the guy behind center is pivotal to any success. It’s kind of why I’m so weary about Alex Smith. Not that Smith is injured, but he’s still a liability. (Can you tell that I don’t trust him?) I like Andy Dalton, I see good things here. But I’m also acutely aware of the Texans defense, which was No. 2 overall in yards allowed this season and was third best in the league in passing yards allowed with 189.7 per game. Yet I see three straight losses from the Texans to end their season to the Colts (2-14), the Panthers (6-10) and the Titans (9-7). News of T.J. Yates’ injury to his left shoulder has concerned many. He tweeted “I don’t need it.” I think it’ll affect him somehow.
My pick: Bengals
Steelers (12-4) at Broncos (8-8) — The world of Tim Tebow mania is crashing down around the former Gators quarterback. Three straight losses and a horrific six passes completed in Week 17 against the Kansas City Chiefs have sullied all the good hype he received this season. Yet the Broncos backed into the playoffs Sunday, getting help from a piss-poor Raiders team. Unfortunately for them, and Tebow, they don’t have a chance. The Steelers are one of six elite teams in the NFL and there’s no way they’re getting stopped by these guys. Pittsburgh boasts the No. 1 defense in the NFL, holding teams to a 271.8 yards per game. Also of note, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s ankle is looking much better after the team’s Week 17 win over the Cleveland Browns. They’re going to need him with an injured Rashard Mendenhall (who they don’t use nearly enough anyways) possibly out.
My pick: Steelers
Lions (10-6) at Saints (13-3) — Can anyone stop the combination of Drew Brees (5,476 yards, 46 touchdowns), Marques Colston (80 receptions, 1,143 yards, 8 touchdowns) and Jimmy Graham (99 receptions, 1,310 yards, 11 touchdowns)? I don’t think so. As has always been the worry with the Saints, it’s their defense that has issues. But when you’re averaging 34.2 points per game, good for second best in the NFL behind the Green Bay Packers, it’s easy to think you’re invincible. The Lions score 29.6 points per game, led by standout QB Matthew Stafford (5,038 yards, 41 touchdowns), good for fourth in the NFL. You’re going to be hearing this word a lot this week: shootout. I’m excited about that. But I know any team can lose a shootout. But my bet is that the Lions will blink first.
My pick: Saints
Falcons (10-6) at Giants (9-7) — You gotta love the way the New York Giants finished their season against the Dallas Cowboys. It was essentially a playoff game. The outcome was predictable from a Cowbooys standpoint, but what I noticed was that the Giants’ defense had reclaimed their active pass rush, seemingly missing in action during the final stretch of the season. They claimed 11 sacks in the last two weeks, including six against Tony Romo Sunday. Prior to that, the Giants defense had totaled six sacks in the previous three games. And I haven’t even begun to rave about Eli Manning — an elite quarterback in the NFL — who finishes the year with 4,933 yards and 29 touchdowns. Or his home run hitting wide receiver Victor Cruz (82 receptions, 1,536 yards and 9 touchdowns). This team has the intangibles for a Super Bowl run. The Falcons, on the other hand, have only one solid win against a possible playoff opponent this season, beating the Detroit Lions in Week 7. Their thrashing of the Bucs in Week 17 doesn’t impress me. They have too many holes. Their defense is shaky, at best. They abandon the running game all too often (as do the Giants) and, sorry to say it, Matt Ryan isn’t as good as little brother Manning. It’s going to be a tough one for the Falcons, but it’s going to happen.
My pick: Giants
Week 17: 8-8
2011 season final tally: 135-83 (61.9 percent)
It’s the last one: My Week 17 NFL picks
I don't know about you, but I don't trust Tony Romo in big games.
This is actually a sad day. We’ve now come to the point in which I won’t have an easily ready-made post for the website every week. Not only that, but we’re entering into one of the most exciting times of the year with playoff football on the horizon, and I’m sure I’ll be busier than ever with Patriots coverage. Forgive me if I become a little more erratic in my postings. I’m still trying to get a feel for the NBA season’s rhythm. It’s not easy with all of the back-to-backs. For instance, I just realized there are games every day of the week. Every day. That’s just stupid to me. There’s beauty in football — which is admittedly trying to muck things up — knowing that game day is Sunday. In the soccer world, you know game day is Saturday. I don’t care too much for Thursday night football, or Saturdays in the flex weeks, while I don’t mind Monday. But this every day crap is out of control. And it’s worse than baseball because the rhythm in this shortened 66-game schedule is indescribable from week to week. It’s just madness. Which is all the more reason to miss having a set day to do write down my weekly picks. I’m wondering when I will get a chance to write down my Warriors thoughts. And for that matter, when will I see them on national TV again.
But I digress. Football is my love, so let’s unleash some lovin’ — and hate — in the Week 17 picks. In this episode of Zuri’s right (most of the time), I bury the Dallas Cowboys, lift the Oakland Raiders, and hope for a little Tebow magic. The theme this week? Go hard or go home. Let’s go.
49ers at Rams — You already know how I feel. I don’t pick against the 49ers. But I can’t stress this more than enough that a win this week, albeit against a hapless team like the Rams, secures the No. 2 seed in the playoffs and a first-round bye that the 49ers should covet. So I don’t think anyone should be letting up for the sake of rest or any of the other sorry excuses teams use in Week 17.
My pick: 49ers
Jets at Dolphins — I’m loving the way Reggie Bush is playing to cap the season. Finally, someone in the Dolphins organization in charge decided to put the ball in the hands of the team’s playmaker. And it’s created some serious offense that was lacking for a long time. Mark Sanchez on the other hand is playing some of the worst football in his career. It doesn’t get much worse than this for him.
My pick: Dolphins
Titans at Texans — I don’t expect T.J. Yates to be awesome, but I don’t expect him to suck either. Might a continued emphasis on the running game help?
My pick: Texans
Colts at Jaguars — The Colts have been playing well lately, winning their last two games. What the hell are they thinking?!?!?
My pick: Jaguars
Redskins at Eagles — Obviously this game doesn’t really matter, seeing how both teams are eliminated from the playoffs. But I believe only one team has checked out a week early.
My pick: Redskins
Bears at Vikings — Chicago will play hard. This game means something to Lovie Smith, if not for the fact that he should have been fired two years ago. It helps that Adrian Peterson is hurt.
My pick: Bears
Panthers at Saints — Why do I feel like the Saints are going to get lit up by Cam Newton and the Panthers. I see Newton taking his Pro Bowl snub personally and taking it on New Orleans. It helps that I’m rooting against the Saints a lot lately.
My pick: Panthers
Lions at Packers — Nobody told the Lions it would be easy. But it’s getting easier with news that Matt Flynn will be playing at quarterback instead of Aaron Rodgers. That’s good for the Lions and their playoff seeding hopes. I suspect they’ll capitalize.
My pick: Lions
Ravens at Bengals — It seems the Ravens only play well when a good team comes to test them. Well now that folks are calling the Bengals a good team, and the Bengals on the verge of the playoffs, they may actually play higher than the level of their competition. Maybe.
My pick: Ravens
Steelers at Browns — Ben Roethlisberger wants to play. That means he will. With him, and with Charlie Batch as the first option, I see Pittsburgh beating up on Cleveland in a race to the AFC North title and first-round bye.
My pick: Steelers
Chiefs at Broncos — Kyle Orton returns to Denver as the quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs. With a playoff berth on the line for the Broncos, Tim Tebow needs the magic. For some reason, when the stakes are at its highest, Tebow thrives. I think he’ll overcome the adversity.
My pick: Broncos
Seahawks at Cardinals — Does anyboydy care? If you’re wondering, I think Seattle has a better overall team even though they lost to the 49ers and the Cardinals beat them three weeks ago.
My pick: Seahawks
Chargers at Raiders — The Raiders need the playoffs like Shaq needs to speak up on these NBA on TNT broadcasts. (Seriously, are you watching this? He’s non-existent with the commentary.) The Raiders have a chance to sneak in if they can win against the Chargers and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs. They haven’t been to the postseason their devastating Super Bowl loss in 2002. A win this week would be the next step in putting all that bad mojo in the past.
My pick: Raiders
Buccaneers at Falcons — I think the Falcons are embarrassed after getting their tails handed to them against the New Orleans Saints. They have to bounce back if they want an easier path in the playoffs.
My pick: Falcons
Cowboys at Giants — This is the battle for the NFC East title. Winner goes to the playoffs. Loser stays home. Let me ask you a simple question: Do you trust Tony Romo in a game like this? Yeah, me neither. I see the Giants winning convincingly.
My pick: Giants
Last week: 8-5
This season: 127-75
My Week 16 NFL picks
Before I get all relaxed on vacation around here — it being the holidays and me being in San Francisco — I thought it would be best to not ruin my streak and get my NFL picks out before the games get going. There is, according to the schedule, a plethora of good games on Saturday. I’ll be the guy trying not to miss much, but not caring much either. So here are my picks without comment, again.
Raiders at Chiefs
My pick: Chiefs
Cardinals at Bengals
My pick: Cardinals
Buccaneers at Panthers
My pick: Panthers
Browns at Ravens
My pick: Ravens
Vikings at Redskins
My pick: Redskins
Rams at Steelers
My pick: Steelers
Giants at Jets
My pick: Jets
Jaguars at Titans
My pick: Titans
Chargers at Lions
My pick: Lions
Eagles at Cowboys
My pick: Eagles
49ers at Seahawks
My pick: 49ers
Bears at Packers
My pick: Packers
Falcons at Saints
My pick: Falcons
Add ‘em up: My NFL picks through Week 15 are pretty damn good
I had a bad feeling when the Green Bay Packers lost to the Kansas City Chiefs. When the Indianapolis Colts beat the Tennessee Titans, it turned into a sinking feeling. Then, the Baltimore Ravens got their tails kicked by the San Diego Chargers Sunday night and I had to take a look at the numbers. I kept thinking that this week’s picks were going to look like a drunken Lindsey Lohan had gone through and made picks by her favorite colors.
Wrong.
I’m going into Monday night’s 49ers-Steelers game 9-5 on the week. I don’t pick Patriots games … or most Thursday games. And, apparently, I don’t channel surf as much as I should.
On the year, I’m 119-70. That’s money. That’s a 62 percent rate of success. I’ll put those numbers up against anybody.
Anybody.
I really need to poke my head out of my little NFL bubble during the day. But when the Patriots are on, my eyes are glued to the task at hand. Same goes for the 49ers.
Feeling good, feeling great.
My Week 15 NFL picks
I should be glad the NFL is as awesome as it is. But my prevailing gripe with the league has to be these Thursday night games. I just find them to be wholly unnecessary to promote the league’s network. I’m sure the teams subjected to the nasty travel and shortened practice weeks would agree. But hey, what do I know? I’m just a guy who is trying to make his NFL picks in time for the first game of the week.
This week, again, I’m going mostly without comment. However, I will note that I’m finally picking the Raiders again and I’m getting used to the fact — as if I should have let it become otherwise — that I’ll be picking against the Bills going forward. Possible upset picks with the 49ers, Eagles and Seahawks.
Put your game face on, it’s Week 15.
Jaguars at Falcons
My pick: Falcons
Cowboys at Buccaneers
My pick: Cowboys
Dolphins at Bills
My pick: Dolphins
Seahawks at Bears
My pick: Seahawks
Panthers at Texans
My pick: Texans
Titans at Colts
My pick: Titans
Packers at Chiefs
My pick: Packers
Saints at Vikings
My pick: Saints
Redskins at Giants
My pick: Redskins
Bengals at Rams
My pick: Bengals
Lions at Raiders
My pick: Raiders
Browns at Cardinals
My pick: Cardinals
Jets at Eagles
My pick: Eagles
Ravens at Chargers
My pick: Ravens
Steelers at 49ers
My pick: 49ers
My Week 14 NFL picks
I made my picks like five days ago. I thought I’d have time to opine on them before Sunday and that’s clearly not the case. So I post today, without comment, this week’s picks.
49ers at Cardinals
My pick: 49ers
Raiders at Packers
My pick: Packers
Browns at Steelers
My pick: Steelers
Colts at Ravens
My pick: Ravens
Falcons at Panthers
My pick: Falcons
Texans at Bengals
My pick: Bengals
Vikings at Lions
My pick: Vikings
Buccaneers at Jaguars
My pick: Buccaneers
Eagles at Dolphins
My pick: Dolphins
Chiefs at Jets
My pick: Chiefs
Saints at Titans
My pick: Saints
Bears at Broncos
My pick: Broncos
Bills at Chargers
My pick: Chargers
Giants at Cowboys
My pick: Giants
Rams at Seahawks
My pick: Seahawks
A few silly ideas about the 49ers, Patriots and my Week 13 NFL picks
Wouldn't it be awesome to have the 49ers defense paired with the Patriots offense?
It occurred to me after Sunday’s games were over that the New England Patriots, a team in which I occasionally help cover for the newspaper, is remarkably similar to the San Francisco 49ers.
How, you might ask? They’re not stupid teams. Not like the Eagles, whom killed themselves with penalties and drops against the Patriots, or the Jets, whom succumbed to idiotic gameplanning against the Patriots twice. The 49ers, unlike the bottom tier of the NFL and particularly the AFC East, are turnover allergic. They’re penalty averse. They’re smarter than your average Bear.
Through Week 12, the 49ers are 21st in the NFL for penalties committed and 15th in penalty yards. But most important, their turnover differential is a +16. The Patriots are a +6.
(The Patriots’ numbers in general are nowhere near as kind. I’ll get to that.)
There are signs of Bill Belichick in Jim Harbaugh. They’re both ill-disposed to making direct statements. They’re both committed to crappy players for reasons no one understands. And they’re both making the best of units that have eye-popping deficiencies. Think Alex Smith or the Patriots’ secondary.
Yet, when given the opportunity on a primetime game on the nation’s best holiday (yes, I went there) to show off the team’s new stature among the NFL elite, the 49ers were not up to the task. They committed seven penalties for 97 yards and Smith threw an interception, helping the Ravens bring the Red and Gold back down to Earth. What had worked for a majority of the season — ball security — was lost in the talk of the Har-bowl.
But luckily for the 49ers, they know this. Said Harbough, “I think it will makes us stronger going forward.”
Identifying the problems have been simple. Fixing the talent, has not.
Sound familiar?
The Patriots had the same sort of issues when they suffered a two-game skid a month ago. They knew what the problems were, but couldn’t fix the talent issue. (Again, think Patriots’ secondary.) In time, the team has gotten smarter. The talent-less Joes charged with defending the best wide receivers in the league have made fewer and fewer mistakes. Yes, they’ve given up some big plays, and yes they’re still worst in the NFL in passing yards allowed. But despite the alarm bells behind the numbers, they’re still apart of a defense that is giving up 20.3 points per game, good for 11th in the NFL. That’s because they don’t make stupid mistakes. Instead, they make the competition beat them straight up.
Imagine the Patriots with 49ers defense, which is the best in the NFL. They’d be undefeated. Imagine the 49ers with the Patriots offense, which is the second best, if not the best, offense in the NFL. They’d be undefeated.
These hypotheticals here really have no place in the world. But stop for a second and imagine if other teams in the NFL not only closed the talent gap, but closed the intelligence gap.
I recall sitting in the press box at the Meadowlands watching the Patriots beat up on the Jets and thinking, this is horrible. The Patriots aren’t more talented, but they’re certainly not as stupid as this team. The same could be said of a number of the 49ers’ wins. It’s a testament to the coaching and the fact that the NFL is not as much about brute force and talent as it is about smarts. Without smarts, the Patriots definitely wouldn’t be 8-3. And the 49ers wouldn’t be 9-2. And I wouldn’t be thinking of some fantasy concoction.
And now on to my picks, comments not included.
Rams at 49ers
My pick: 49ers
Read the full article »
My Week 12 NFL picks
Can Curtis Painter and the Indianapolis Colts get it done this week?
Oh, and I omitted all of Thursday’s games for obvious reasons. It was Thanksgiving. I was brimming with duties, both food and non-food related.
And yes, the “Har-Bowl” was disappointing for its outcome. But I think the win goes to show more about the streakiness of the Ravens than the emergence of the 49ers.
Until next time, and without further ado:
Vikings at Falcons
My pick: Falcons
Browns at Bengals
My pick: Bengals
Read the full article »
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