AFC, NFC championship picks
The AFC championship will be won in the trenches.
Last week was bittersweet for me. I went a sterling 4-0 against the spread, but my Super Bowl pick, the Seattle Seahawks, lost to the Atlanta Falcons in the team’s NFC divisional bout.
It was a stellar game with the Falcons edging the Seahawks 30-28 on an inspiring game-winning drive by former Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan certainly lived up to his nickname, Matty Ice, completing two passes with 31 seconds left in the game to get his Falcons down to the Seattle 31-yard line, setting up Matt Bryant’s game-winning field goal. Bryant was clutch, nailing the 49-yard attempt after getting a practice kick courtesy of Pete Carroll.
Atlanta won the game, Seattle covered the spread. It was a small victory and a huge loss that has me re-thinking the whole Super Bowl dynamic now that the final four is set to kick off on Sunday. I’ve been fairly good at picking games. I’m 7-1 against the spread and 7-1 picking straight up winners during the postseason, but this week feels different. There’s a lot of talent in Atlanta that I underestimated, namely the next-level worldly play of Ryan that the entire south has come to expect. But I have my doubts.
Meanwhile, we have two spreads that are virtually unbelievable. And that makes for this week’s picks to be a little more hairy than usual.
49ers (-5) at Falcons (+5) — When Jim Harbaugh installed Colin Kaepernick at quarterback, it was with the understanding that the second-year pro’s performance would come with high risks and high rewards. Kaepernick proved as much against the Green Bay Packers, throwing a first quarter interception before literally running away with the game. His playoff-record 181 yards rushing (in addition to the 263 yards passing) buried the Packers in a 45-31 win at Candlestick Park. The onus is on Harbaugh and Kaepernick to replicate the effort at the Georgia Dome, proving the option is viable in the NFL once again. The Falcons got a taste of the option last week, clamping down on the Seahawks’ powerful running game before eking out the win thanks to Ryan’s heroics. One key I noticed in the Falcons’ matchup with the Seahawks, rookie quarterback Russell Wilson failed to keep Atlanta on its toes by taking the option. He kept feeding Marshawn Lynch (16 carries, 46 yards) to no avail. I doubt the 49ers’ young quarterback, who has seemingly grown up overnight on the football field, would be so hesitant to take advantage of the opportunities a leaky Atlanta defense will provide. The Falcons surrendered 491 yards against the Seahawks and were the No. 24 total defense during the regular season. Ryan will be facing a 49ers team that has a significantly better defensive line with Justin Smith leading the way. It won’t be easy, but with the possibility of another breakout game from Kaepernick and an already shaky defense in Atlanta, I see this breaking for the 49ers. Matty Ice can only do so much.
Straight up winner: 49ers
By the line: Falcons
Ravens (+9.5) at Patriots (-9.5) — Joe Flacco is a much better quarterback when the pressure is on the line. But what’s more, he has enough moxie about him to throw the deep pass with regularity. And lucky for him, he has the talent to come up with the passes in Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones. Add in a steady dose of Ray Rice, who ran for 131 yards on 30 carries in the AFC divisional round, and the Ravens are the most balanced team the Patriots have faced this season. Also taking into consideration the Ravens’ Week 3 win against the Patriots, a game in which Flacco completed eight passes of 20 yards or more, and fans in Baltimore are probably hyped at the possibility of taking down the Patriots again. The Ravens did it on the back of Rice in 2010 and by Flacco’s arm in September. But I don’t see that happening this time around. The Patriots have made the necessary adjustments on defense, particularly in tightening up the secondary, to fend off another upset. Devin McCourty has yet to take the bad angles we saw from Patrick Chung in Week 3 at safety. And Aqib Talib is a quality corner that can battle one-on-one with bigger receivers like Anquan Boldin. I fully expect to see McCourty playing over the top of Smith looking for those deep passes Flacco favors, and the game to be won in the trenches. The Patriots’ run defense (No. 9 overall in the regular season) is my small cause for comfort. But I do expect this one to be close.
Straight up winner: Patriots
By the line: Ravens
Divisional playoff picks
49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick will provide an entirely different dynamic when San Francisco hosts the Green Bay Packers in their NFC divisional matchup.
I went a perfect 4-0 over the wild card weekend, picking straight up winners, and 3-1 against the spread. Someone in Las Vegas apparently knew that Joe Webb was a crap quarterback and was likely to tank the game for Minnesota, hence my bungling of the initial 9-point spread (updated to 7 points later in the week) favoring the Green Bay Packers. Who would’ve thunk it that the Packers would cover after losing in a shootout to the Vikings a week prior?
The funny thing is we’ve got two more ridiculous spreads for the divisional matchups, but I actually think at least one of the teams should cover. The Patriots are 10-point favorites over the Houston Texans. No one seems to have forgotten the Patriots’ 42-14 drubbing over the Texans on Monday Night Football in Week 14. The Texans certainly haven’t forgotten. And then the Broncos are 10-point favorites over the Ravens. Which brings me to my first upset pick.
Saturday
Ravens (+10) at Broncos (-10) — The Ravens ground game is special because Ray Rice is phenomenal between the tackles. But now add Bernard Pierce (103 yards last Sunday) to the mix and you’ve got two talented runners the Broncos have to be weary of this coming Saturday that are good inside and outside. The Broncos are on an 11-game winning streak thanks to the mastery of Peyton Manning and one of the league’s best defenses (No. 2 overall). But I’m hardly impressed with their body of work. Since they lost to the Patriots, the Broncos have beaten up on some poor teams. But one of their quality wins did come against the Ravens in Week 15. It was one of those typical bad Joe Flacco games (20 of 40 passing overall and an interception returned for a touchdown along with a fumble in the first half). I know this may seem like a stretch of the imagination, but I think Flacco will have a much better game this week and that will go a long way for a Ravens team that will have to emphasize the run. I’m taking the upset and I’m definitely taking the Ravens with the spread. The Ravens just seem more equipped to handle Manning and the threat that the Broncos provide.
Straight up winner: Ravens
By the line: Ravens
Packers (+3) at 49ers (-3) — These two teams played so long ago and have changed so much, I think it’s safe to say they’ll each throw out that Week 1 game film in which the 49ers pulled out a 30-22 win. San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick, on the bench in that Week 1 win, brings an entirely different dynamic to the 49ers offense. The second-year quarterback out of the University of Nevada is much more confident throwing the ball down field than Alex Smith, the veteran backup, and he complements the team’s No. 4 rushing offense well with his ability to run the option and scramble when plays break down. The Packers haven’t seen a quarterback like that — matched with a defense of the 49ers’ caliber — since the team’s infamous Week 3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, the “Fail Mary.” But the 49ers have been shaky in the past month, rising to the occasion against the Patriots and then falling hard the next week against the Seahawks. They’re lucky to be the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Packers will certainly put the game on Aaron Rodgers’ shoulders. If 49ers defensive lineman Justin Smith (triceps) is even at 75 percent capacity for the game, Rodgers is certain to have a much tougher night. And as of this writing, Smith looks like he’s going to play. This will be the game of the week.
Straight up winner: 49ers
By the line: 49ers
Sunday
Seahawks (+3) at Falcons (-3) — If Seattle’s defense has a better start than it did against the Washington Redskins in the wild card, this could be a cake walk. I’m definitely high on the Seahawks right now and looking at the matchup with the Falcons makes me even more confident in the pick. The Falcons are the No. 24 defense in the league, going up against a team that has consistently been able to run the ball well with Marshawn Lynch (132 yards, 1 TD against the Redskins) and has able to shut down the best receivers in the game. Seattle cornerbacks Richard Sherman (8 interceptions, 24 passes defensed) and Brandon Browner will have to put their best effort forward against receivers Julio Jones and Roddy White. And it’ll take a team effort to account for tight end Tony Gonzalez. Each are among the best in the business at their respective positions. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (4,719 yards, 32 touchdowns, 99.1 quarterback rating) is playing out of this world right now. But the last time he saw a top-5 defense like the Seahawks’ (No. 4 overall) was in Week 2 against the Denver Broncos. I don’t think Atlanta is ready.
Straight up winner: Seahawks
By the line: Seahawks
Texans (+10) at Patriots (-10) — It’s not hard to be so down on the Houston Texans after watching their 19-13 win over the Cincinnati Bengals in the wild card. One might argue that the Bengals lost, rather than the Texans won in an ugly, ugly game. Matt Schaub, who had his best outing in a month against Cincy, comes back to Gillette Stadium where he was basically rendered useless. The Patriots took away the dump off passes over the middle of the field that he likes to tight ends Owen Daniels and James Casey. The Texans ended up 4 of 14 on third down and fell into an early hole before losing all fight in them. The Patriots won 42-14. Schaub will have tight end Garrett Graham back to target as well this time around. But if Houston focuses on running the ball with Arian Foster (they’re 8-0 when he has 100 or more yards) they have a shot to keep it close. But they have to keep up with Tom Brady and the No. 1 offense in the NFL. A hot start by the Patriots will all but doom the Texans. And after watching the film of the Texans defense — the number of miscues against the Patriots was plentiful — they’ll need to play much better to keep this close. It doesn’t help Houston’s cause that Rob Gronkowski is back, Rob Ninkovich appears to have benefited from the bye week, and Aqib Talib has been able to rest for at least three weeks. Houston may be seeking revenge, but the stars are aligned for the Patriots.
Straight up winner: Patriots
By the line: Patriots
Last week: 4-0 (3-1 by the line)
Postseason: 4-0 (3-1 by the line)
Week 17 NFL picks: Seattle is the new team to beat
Russell Wilson is playing at a black belt’s level.
I don’t know about you, but I’m convinced. The Seattle Seahawks are the real deal. And while they seemed to be just another fledgling team a month ago, going into Week 17 team they appear to be Super Bowl favorites. I’d pick the Seahawks in any dogfight after they beat the living crap out of the San Francisco 49ers last night. With a final score of 42-13, everyone who watches the NFL is either marveling at the parity in the league or are totally confused after three weeks of upsets.
It started when the Patriots blew out the Houston Texans, the last 1-loss team in the league. Then the 49ers took a sledge hammer to the Patriots’ pride in a 41-34 win. Last night, Pete Carroll let Jim Harbaugh know what’s the deal. It was the kind of comeuppance that resets the playing field across the league.
If you’ll excuse my mixes sports analogy, this reminds me quite a bit of the San Francisco Giants’ 2010 World Series run. The Giants were a fledgling team during the season, but turned it on in late August and September before running the tables in October. The Seahawks are running the tables in December and they have the hot hand in Russell Wilson. Seattle is on a four-game winning streak, last losing to the Miami Dolphins, 24-21, Nov. 25. Next week, they have an opportunity to split their season series with the St. Louis Rams after a Week 4 loss. If Wilson continues to play like he has (15 of 21, 171 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT against the 49ers), and their defense stays consistent (No. 3 overall in the league) they’ll be playing in New Orleans in February. January will be cinch.
With that said, here are my picks for the last week of the NFL season. A day early, of course. But that’s because it Christmas tomorrow and all the games were wrapped up yesterday.
Enjoy the holidays folks.
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Week 16 NFL picks: 49ers find themselves as the team to beat
Colin Kaepernick took a step forward in his career by beating the Patriots.
I really thought the New England Patriots had all the intangibles to beat the San Francisco 49ers. The hurry up offense, the hall of fame quarterback, and a stingy enough run defense were the most obvious factors. What I did not envision was the giant step forward Colin Kaepernick took as a professional, making some tough throws under pressure and showing better accuracy over the course of the game than he had the previous two weeks. Sure, he missed a couple of shots. But his 27-yard strike to Michael Crabtree in the third quarter was the definition of ballsy, right over the middle of the field and in between two defenders.
Now in the second half of Sunday night’s 41-34 win for the 49ers, the Patriots played just like I thought they would. Tom Brady took over and threw the ball 46 times, including two touchdowns. He ended up with a career-high 65 attempts. If anything, pass first is the new blueprint to beat the 49ers. Brady orchestrated a 28-point comeback attempt, tying the game 31-31 with a little more than six minutes left before another quick-strike touchdown pass to Crabtree all but sealed the 49ers’ win. Brady’s awesome second half was too little, too late.
Now the 49ers have to go on the road again to play a team that has scored more than 100 points in the last two weeks, the Seattle Seahawks. I wonder if the 49ers are ready for the challenge given the travel and the strength of Seattle’s team. They’re not built like the Patriots. The Seahawks are much more defensively oriented and much more likely to stick with pounding away to set up their play-action. And Seattle’s defense is much more likely to stand up well to the 49ers’ passing attack, featuring two of the tallest corners in the NFL. It should be no surprise that this will be the game of the week with the NFC West on the line. It’ll also be a measuring stick for the Seahawks and their young, exceptional quarterback Russell Wilson, in a likely playoff bid.
Get your popcorn ready. Here are my Week 16 picks:
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Week 15 NFL picks: Patriots on a roll
The New England Patriots are the best in the NFL according to my eyes.
Last week wasn’t one of my best ones. I failed to see, like most did, that the New England Patriots were going to embarrass the Houston Texans on national television. I also failed to see the Carolina Panthers beating the Atlanta Falcons — as did the entire southern region of the USA — and then the San Diego Chargers decided they were going to play meaningful football for a week, upsetting the Pittsburgh Steelers. It was one of those kind of weeks where the lap dogs turned into pit-bull terriers. But not everyone is a blue nose. Not like the Patriots at least.
The Patriots took a huge bite out of the luster for the Texans with their 42-14 win Monday night. It makes me think that the Colin Kaepernick led San Francisco 49ers won’t be able to match up well with the men they’ll face at Gillette Stadium. Trust me when I say, I don’t take this lightly. The Patriots, whom I doubted for the first time last week, devoured the now second best team of the AFC. What makes anyone think they won’t do the same to the 49ers, who have been inconsistent on both sides of the ball. And that leads me to my picks for the week.
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Week 14 NFL picks: Why are you busting Colin Kaepernick’s balls?
All this hate for Colin Kaepernick and he’s never looked as bad as Alex Smith on his worst day.
Best game of Week 13 was the 49ers-Rams game. We all thought it was headed toward another tie with seconds left on the clock in overtime. The Rams, I’m sure you already know, won on the toe of kicker Greg Zuerlein. He nailed a 54-yard field goal attempt as time expired to lift the Rams to a 16-13 win. He had nailed a 51-yard attempt to tie the game in regulation.
But here’s the thing, everybody is walking away from this game talking about two things: Whether Colin Kaepernick should remain the starting QB for the 49ers, and whether David Akers deserves to keep his job after missing crucial field goals. Akers missed a potential game-winning field goal in OT Sunday and he had missed one in OT in the teams’ first meeting that resulted in a tie.
But I have another takeaway: Why is nobody talking about Delanie Walker’s huge drop in the end zone. It was the game-winning touchdown pass Kaepernick will never have because Walker dropped it. That was a significant play that’s getting overlooked. He had the ball hit his hands and he couldn’t come away with it.
I know the book is out with 49ers fans on who should lead the team and coach Jim Harbaugh has already decided to stick with Kaepernick, but I don’t think they should so easily rip into the young QB’s performance when so many other deciding factors contributed to the 49ers’ loss.
I think this is as good a time as any for Kaepernick to bounce back. The 49ers have the Miami Dolphins at home. And despite the Dolphins’ record, they’re a much tougher team than they get credit for. This will be a great tuneup game for the 49ers before they play the Patriots in Week 15. Should be exciting.
Here are my picks for this week:
Broncos at Raiders
My pick: Broncos
Chargers at Steelers
My pick: Steelers
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NFL Week 13 picks: Beginning of the Giants push?
This is that special time of year for the New York Giants.
Last week, the Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, and New York Giants all surprised me with their wins. I think we’re all believers that any team can win any game in the NFL, but we’ve given up on a few of them. Don’t think for a second that I’ll be picking the Browns or the Jags to win back-to-back …. regularly. (The Browns get the mercy of the schedule gods, facing the Oakland Raiders this week.) The Dolphins have showed spurts of competitiveness, and at other times have been in disarray. Meanwhile, this seems like the perfect time for the Giants to start pulling it together and making their push to the playoffs. Remember last season, New York had lost four in a row before winning its next seven of eight en route to its Super Bowl victory. The Giants were coming off two straight losses before beating the Packers 38-10 Sunday. Their schedule isn’t easy going forward, with tilts against the Washington Redskins, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, and Baltimore Ravens. But they’ve surprised us before.
At this point of the season, my picks will obviously reflect the fact that I’ve given up on certain teams. The Jags and Browns are two of them. But I’ve also most certainly have given up on the Philadelphia Eagles. I’m sure Pennsylvania has as well. And then there’s the Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers and Dallas Cowboys that I’ve dumped in the dead-to-me ditch. They will not, and do not, deserve any votes of confidence. As far as I’m concerned, all of their wins have been by luck or because their opponents have overlooked them. Certainly a majority of their losses are because of moronic coaching and poor leadership. And in the case of the Raiders, as is always the case, discipline.
And once you weed out the Raiders, the Buffalo Bills, the Jags, and the New York Jets, picking these games are easy. I went 12-4 last week avoiding those catastrophic teams. Sure, one or two will surprise you. But not all of them and not all of the time.
Without further ado, here this week’s picks:
Saints at Falcons — This is it. Either the Falcons do it or they’ll never beat the Saints in the Drew Brees era. Something’s gotta give.
My pick: Falcons
Seahawks at Bears — Gotta go with the Bears. Jay Cutler is not likeable, but he gets the job done.
My pick: Bears
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Week 12 NFL picks: Huge win for the 49ers
Nobody expected 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (16 of 23 passing for 243 yards, 2 touchdowns) to play as well as he did against the Chicago Bears Monday night. I certainly entertained the thought, but he was much better and more efficient than I imagined. That’s something you can only attribute to good coaching.
Now, there’s a quarterback controversy. Good luck with that, coach.
In other news, I imagine you can only attribute my success at picking games to my ability to forgive myself for favoring some teams over others. I went 13-1 last week, disregarding all the favorites that I had built up the previous weeks. This week, I’m doing a bit of the same. That means Philly is toast in my books. The Giants are on the rocks. The Saints are back where they should be. And the Patriot reign shouldn’t be questioned.
Here are my picks for this week:
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Week 11 NFL picks: Down goes the Falcons, plus one Giant mystery
Eli Manning is in a terrible funk and it’s stinking up my fantasy football team.
I fully expected Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons to handle the New Orleans Saints easily, even on the road. Well, it wasn’t the first time I was wrong. And it surely won’t be the last.
I went 9-1-4 last week, with the Falcons doing its part to surprise me, but the New York Giants continuing to ruin me. Eli Manning, my fantasy quarterback, is trying to bring up this whole elite quarterback thing again on his own. In the last three weeks, Manning has gone 54 of 99 for 532 yards passing, with zero touchdowns, four interceptions, and has been sacked seven times. He’s been nothing short of atrocious in that span as the Giants have gone 1-2.
Add in the Chicago Bears loss to the Houston Texans, which was a legitimate tossup, and the San Francisco 49ers and St. Louis Rams tie, and four losses were bound to happen. With that said, I still did remarkable, picking at least nine winners for the eighth week this season. Again, this has been an abnormally good year picking winners straight up. For the playoffs, I’m definitely going to revert to calling games on the spread.
Without further ado, here are my picks for Week 11:
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Week 10 NFL picks: Rolling right along
Chicago Bears cornerback Charles Tillman is having a helluva season. His presence is needed Sunday night in Week 10.
I’m super late with this post. Sorry for the delay, the election hype got to me and then work took the rest of my attention.
I’m not going to waste time here, so let’s get right to it. Here are my picks:
Colts at Jaguars – The Jaguars are arguably the worst team in the NFL. Thursday night games suck. That is all.
My pick: Colts
Raiders at Ravens – The Raiders may surprise you every now and then, but not now. Not against this team. The Ravens are still good, and I never count on Joe Flacco. At least not anymore.
My pick: Ravens
Broncos at Panthers – Peyton Manning looks good. Real good. MVP good. Give the veteran the nod here.
My pick: Broncos
Giants at Bengals – Sooner or later, the Giants are going to figure it out. But it won’t take them to figure it out before they beat up on the Bengals.
My pick: Giants
Titans at Dolphins – I could be very wrong here. The Titans are surging. Chris Johnson is surging. But I happen to like Reggie Bush and Ryan Tannehill a lot. I also like the Dolphins D.
My pick: Dolphins
Lions at Vikings – Adrian Peterson is in beast mode right now. When he’s like this, the Vikings are unbeatable.
My pick: Vikings
Bills at Patriots – This is a guaranteed win. Do not doubt it straight up, and don’t doubt it by the spread (-11 for Patriots). Too easy.
My pick: Patriots
Falcons at Saints – Saints are coming around, but the Falcons are already there. Falcons by a slim margin though.
My pick: Falcons
Chargers at Buccaneers – I just think San Diego is imploding. They have issues all over the place.
My pick: Buccaneers
Jets at Seahawks – I happen to think Russell Wilson is a fine quarterback. But he’ll struggle. It’s Marshawn Lynch the Jets have to worry about.
My pick: Seahawks
Cowboys at Eagles – In a battle of ineptitude, I’ll place my bet on the team that is, dare I say, less snakebitten.
My pick: Cowboys
Rams at 49ers – This has blowout written all over it.
My pick: 49ers
Texans at Bears – Best game of the week and a certifiable tossup. I’ll throw my hat in with the best defense in the NFL. And I like my chances with reports that Charles Tillman is going to play. Baby on the way Monday. Chea.
My pick: Bears
Chiefs at Steelers – Steelers in a landslide. The Chiefs are in the bottom tier of the NFL and shouldn’t be sniffing Monday night.
My pick: Steelers
Last week: 9-5
Season: 83-46
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