This week’s picks: 49ers and Patriots
I’m not even sure there should be a full length explanation after this headline. The 49ers, with the top defense left in the NFL, and the Patriots, with the top offense left in the NFL, will bring two worlds together for this particular scribe. I’ve watched the 49ers my whole life — before I even cared for football (many, many years ago) — and I’ve watched the Patriots intently for the past three seasons. They are in my opinion the best two teams left, regardless of conference, bias included.
(My head is spinning with thoughts on the possibility … the probability … that the Patriots will play the 49ers, let alone in the Super Bowl. I feel like Quagmire in Family Guy … giggity.)
The tough part here is that I think the 49ers have a greater chance to lose against an amazing New York Giants team that has been balling out in the last month than the Patriots do against the Baltimore Ravens who make way too many mistakes for a team of its caliber. However, I do think the 49ers prevail. They showed me something against the New Orleans Saints. There’s some mustard in that bottle that we didn’t know was there before. And now that the whole world has had a chance to see the gusto in which Alex Smith can play, you have to look at the 49ers’ offense as equally competent as the team’s defense. It’s a tough sell against a Giants team that features Eli Manning and a defensive line to die for. But these aren’t cavalier times. It’s one side or the other and I’m going with the hometown team.
For my reasons why I’m picking the Patriots, check out my Patriots-Ravens predictions. That should tell you everything you need to know.
Giants at 49ers
My pick: 49ers
Ravens at Patriots
My pick: Patriots
Last week: 3-1
Postseason: 5-2
Regular season: 135-83 (61.9 percent)
Patriots-Ravens predictions
There will be 'Gronking' on Sunday. (Photo by Barry Chin, Boston Globe)
Editor’s note: This originally appeared on Boston.com.
The Patriots last playoff matchup with the Baltimore Ravens provided a stinging reality in New England. Despite the team’s success that season (10-6), home field advantage, and the not-so meager hopes behind one Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr., there was a bit of humble pie to be dished out by the more physical and more defensively gifted Ravens. Not this year. The inequality that once existed between the Ravens and Patriots no longer exists. The talent gap has closed on the defensive side of the ball. And with it, the Patriots’ physicality has progressed. This will be a junkyard fight. And despite having a troublesome year with the team’s secondary, the Patriots are peaking right now. It’s with these thoughts in mind that we lay down our predictions for Sunday’s matchup in the AFC Championship.
Joe Flacco, Tom Brady matchup is the elephant in the room
There is no one player that will have a larger impact on the AFC Championship than Tom Brady. Joe Flacco, while in the driver’s seat as the opposing team’s quarterback, is clearly second fiddle to the Ravens’ success behind running back Ray Rice, who should be aptly considered the engine of their offense. But because of Brady’s legendary skills, his temperament in big games, and his extraordinarily competitive nature — not to forget an aversion to punishing teams that have beaten him in big games — the Patriots will likely force a shootout, with the Ravens’ Flacco thrust into the hero’s chair. In that scenario, he’s either the hero or the goat. We know how Brady will react. How will Flacco respond?
The tendency breakers are still coming
In the Patriots’ win over the Broncos, Aaron Hernandez carried the ball five times for 61 yards, including a 43-yard jaunt in the first quarter that caught Denver by surprise. It’s called a tendency breaker. Coach Bill Belichick said afterward he wanted to keep the Broncos honest. Expect more flare this week. The Ravens showed one of their tendency breakers in the first quarter against the Houston Texans. Quarterback Joe Flacco threw a 1-yard touchdown to backup tight end Kris Wilson. It was Wilson’s first catch of the season.
Special teams will be a determining factor
If the Ravens defense is to be feared, even slightly, there will be greater emphasis on special teams play, both in terms of playmaking and ball security. With a plethora of veteran returners at coach Bill Belichick’s disposal (Julian Edelman, Wes Welker, Danny Woodhead, Kevin Faulk), the Patriots are in a position to be conservative and play mistake free. But expect the Ravens to come in and aggressively strip at the ball to win the turnover battle. That aggressiveness will provide opportunities for some big plays by the Patriots. They have to take advantage.
The Patriots will abandon the running game
Worried about Stevan Ridley’s ball security? Don’t be. After fumbling twice in the past two games, losing one against the Denver Broncos, his playing time will likely be slashed in favor of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, essentially giving coach Bill Belichick reason to abandon the running game entirely. A back like Green-Ellis, who finds his way through holes the mean and ugly way, can be boring for the Patriots’ high flying offense. And unfortunately for Green-Ellis, that style of offense favors Baltimore, something the Patriots can’t afford. Expect Tom Brady to toss 45 plus.
Ed Reed will be avoided
Against the Denver Broncos, Tom Brady threw in Champ Bailey’s direction only once, according to Globe teammate Greg Bedard. You can expect the same of Brady when it comes to the versatile safety. Reed has the hands of a wide receiver and the range of Jacoby Ellsbury in center field. His dangerousness cannot be overstated. Just ask T.J. Yates. This game will be another great opportunity for third, fourth and fifth option receivers to explode on the Ravens. Just not when Reed is sitting above them in coverage.
There will be Gronking
“Gronking” – The act of spiking a football with extreme ferociousness after scoring a touchdown. Despite the increased attention, the double coverage, and the physicality he’ll likely face in the trenches, the Patriots all-pro tight end will continue his Gronking ways. With his build, his speed, and his hands, there is no stopping the talent named Rob Gronkowski. Not even against a defense as vaunted as the Baltimore Ravens. Expect two more scores from the big fella.
Surprise, surprise: Brandon Deaderick’s turn
In Week 17, it was Mark Anderson who recorded a sack and tackle for a loss. Against the Denver Broncos, it was Shaun Ellis who recorded one sack and a bone crushing hit on Tim Tebow. This week, it looks like Brandon Deadrick is in a position – much like last week against the Broncos – to get in on the sack party. He had two assisted tackles against the Broncos and was in the thick of the Patriots dominant defensive effort. With increased playing time since Andre Carter was placed on injured reserve, it’s only a matter of time until he registers his big sack. Sunday is looking ripe for his name to be called.
Hello, Indianapolis!
Whether the opponent is the San Francisco 49ers or the New York Giants, the Patriots will be on a plane to Indianapolis after this Sunday’s game. The deal breaker is Joe Flacco. If the Patriots can harass the quarterback sufficiently while allowing its front seven to continue its aggressive ways, they’ll be headed to their fifth Super Bowl in the last 10 years.
Patriots-Broncos predictions
I expect the Patriots to win and I expect them to win big.
Editor’s note: This originally appeared on Boston.com.
The Patriots are facing what appears to be a tough opponent, a stingy defense and an unconventional quarterback. But there’s a mirage playing out in the Centennial State. As 14-point favorites going into Saturday’s divisional playoff game, the onus is on the Patriots to live up to their own expectations and kill the Broncos’ hallucinations of an AFC Championship trip. The following are bold predictions for Saturday’s game, one which we very much believe the Patriots will win.
Tom Brady will eviscerate Tim Tebow’s Broncos
Let’s not beat around the bush here. Tom Brady is a competitive monster. Despite what he says in the media, he’s taking into account every slight that “Tebow magic” and “Tebow time” has taken away from his own glory. This is a three-time Super Bowl champion facing an overhyped, under-skilled, fly-by-the-seat-of-his-pants, fad of a QB. After the Tebows go down, the Broncos’ organization will be set back another five years.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis is the horse to ride on
Bill Belichick has done quite a bit of tinkering with his running backs rotation. So much so that one wonders from week to week how the carries will break down. How do you utilize Danny Woodhead (77 carries, 351 yards, 4.56 avg.)? Stevan Ridley (87 carries, 441 yards, 5.07 avg.)? Green-Ellis (181 carries, 667 yards, 11 touchdowns, 3.69 avg.)? Kevin Faulk (17 carries, 57 yards, 3.35 avg.)? Expect Green-Ellis to be the go-to back on first and second downs, with Woodhead locked in solidly on third down. The game film speaks to Green-Ellis’ experience finding holes and making things happen out of nothing.
Expect a full dose of #Powwwww
Brandon Spikes, whose signs his Tweets with #PoWwWwW, missed a large stretch of the regular season, including the Patriots’ 41-23 win over the Broncos in Week 15. As a run-stuffing linebacker, his presence was missed. The Broncos pounded away at the Patriots in the first quarter for 167 yards on the ground en route to 252 yards on the day. Sure, the Broncos were felled by turnovers and penalties, but they had a solid gameplan. Enter Spikes. With the colorful linebacker on board, the Patriots will have some added toughness in their front seven to slow down any Broncos rushing attack.
Deion Branch will be the X-factor
In Week 15, when the Patriots beat the Broncos in the regular season, Deion Branch missed the game with a groin injury. In his absence, Chad Ochocinco caught his first touchdown as a Patriot. We’re not proposing some flip-flop here of successes, but do expect Branch to take a greater role this time around. What Ochocinco showed in that Week 15 game, on a blown coverage pass from Tom Brady, was that the Broncos have a tough time with fourth- and fifth-option receivers. Branch is in a prime position to have a great game.
The Patriots will mix coverages
Last year, when the Patriots played and lost to the New York Jets in the divisional playoffs, Tom Brady was bombarded with a mix of coverage so indescribable it was eventually labeled “chaos.” Last week, when the Broncos beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card 29-23, the Steelers were cheating up with their safeties in the box so blatantly they forced Tim Tebow to fire away throughout the game. Expect the Patriots to give Tebow varied looks, and confuse the quarterback as much as possible. Mind games will be paramount.
Secondary thoughts
In an anybody’s guess secondary, one thing we do know is that the Patriots will rely on the talents of defensive back Devin McCourty, ballyhooed by his success in the final two games of the regular season, either at the corner or safety position. With a big target to defend like Demaryius Thomas, and a slippery one like Eddie Royal, the Broncos will provide the stage for McCourty to reclaim his good name. As a tough tackler and instinctive ball hawk, McCourty fits perfectly into a defense that’s up against an offense as run-oriented as the Broncos.
There will be trick plays
NFL teams often have gimmick plays installed and ready to go every week with a “break glass in emergency” attitude about their implementation. Not the Broncos. This is a team that depends on reverses, half-back passes, and fake kicks almost as much as its patented play-action. So expect some trickery. Just don’t expect the Patriots to be fooled.
There will be no ‘Tebow Time’
This game is not going down to the wire, as is the case for most Broncos games. Turnovers may, or may not, be at fault. It doesn’t matter. The Patriots, led by Tom Brady and a renewed focus on run defense, will make sure this game sewed up by the fourth quarter with a two-touchdown lead.
My divisional playoff picks: Patriots, 49ers, Texans and Giants
Are you shocked already? You should be. I’m going on a limb here, both because of a rookie quarterback, some new faith in Alex Smith and the New York Giants.
Make no mistake about it, this is a weekend in which a lot of faith is necessary. The 49ers will not have an easy go of it against the New Orleans Saints. There’s no team hotter in the NFL right now. What Drew Brees can do with a football makes my eyes light up like a little kid. But the same can be said of the 49ers’ defense. There’s no team like it in the NFL, and also in that sense, there’s no team like the 49ers that changes the offensive strategy of an opponent. Opposing teams literally have to give up their running game. With an eye on defense, and the unbelievable possibility that Alex Smith will surprise, I see the one of three big upsets occurring in the divisional playoffs. Yup, I went there.
Saints at 49ers — See above.
My pick: 49ers
Broncos at Patriots — I happen to think that the Patriots are a better team than the Steelers offensively in every fashion. So much better than the Steelers, and Broncos, that I believe Denver’s defense will find itself on its backside by midway through the second quarter. The onus will be on Tim Tebow to save his team by helping the Broncos put up more than 30 points, something they haven’t done since early December. The Patriots average 32.1 points per game, almost two touchdowns more than the Broncos (19.3). In the last go round, everything came down to turnovers. This time, everything will be much more offensively oriented. At least that’s my prediction. (Depending on how you look at it, that could mean defensively oriented.) The Patriots win that battle.
My pick: Patriots
Texans at Ravens — On the road against a rested and feisty Baltimore Ravens team, I envision the T.J. Yates led Texans beating the Ravens. Not because of the rookie though, but because of its phenomenal defense (amazing effort against the Bengals) and the lack of a passing game that has come to characterize the Ravens’s offense (No. 19 in the NFL) in the final weeks of the season. I don’t believe a weekend away from the gridiron can correct their problems. On the other hand, there’s game film on these two from Week 6, a 29-14 win for the Ravens, when Joe Flacco was still pitching like a top-flight quarterback and Matt Schaub was healthy. The difference now, it seems to me, is that one team is hot and the other is not. Any team that struggles with the Cleveland Browns and falls to the San Diego Chargers isn’t deserving of going forward from this point. But then I also said any team that loses three in a row to end the season is bound for a plane ticket home too.
My pick: Texans
Giants at Packers — It is my humble opinion that when an awesome defense faces an awesome offense, and a very good offense faces a mediocre-to-poor defense, the team with the awesome defense will win. What we saw in wild-card weekend was an awesome defense, fiery and dominant in every respect. The Packers are an amazing team, but even in their 38-35 win over the Giants in Week 13, they allowed an alarming amount of points. Imagine if the Giants can wipe at least one touchdown off the board? Don’t imagine it. It’s going to happen.
My pick: Giants
Last week: 2-2
Regular season: 135-83 (61.9 percent)
My NFL wild-card picks: Picking Bengals, Steelers, Saints, Giants
Bengals (9-7) at Texans (10-6) — Despite losing to the Houston Texans, and failing to win a game this season against a team that is plus .500, the Bengals have something that the Texans don’t: An injury free quarterback. In the playoffs, unlike any other time of year, the guy behind center is pivotal to any success. It’s kind of why I’m so weary about Alex Smith. Not that Smith is injured, but he’s still a liability. (Can you tell that I don’t trust him?) I like Andy Dalton, I see good things here. But I’m also acutely aware of the Texans defense, which was No. 2 overall in yards allowed this season and was third best in the league in passing yards allowed with 189.7 per game. Yet I see three straight losses from the Texans to end their season to the Colts (2-14), the Panthers (6-10) and the Titans (9-7). News of T.J. Yates’ injury to his left shoulder has concerned many. He tweeted “I don’t need it.” I think it’ll affect him somehow.
My pick: Bengals
Steelers (12-4) at Broncos (8-8) — The world of Tim Tebow mania is crashing down around the former Gators quarterback. Three straight losses and a horrific six passes completed in Week 17 against the Kansas City Chiefs have sullied all the good hype he received this season. Yet the Broncos backed into the playoffs Sunday, getting help from a piss-poor Raiders team. Unfortunately for them, and Tebow, they don’t have a chance. The Steelers are one of six elite teams in the NFL and there’s no way they’re getting stopped by these guys. Pittsburgh boasts the No. 1 defense in the NFL, holding teams to a 271.8 yards per game. Also of note, Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s ankle is looking much better after the team’s Week 17 win over the Cleveland Browns. They’re going to need him with an injured Rashard Mendenhall (who they don’t use nearly enough anyways) possibly out.
My pick: Steelers
Lions (10-6) at Saints (13-3) — Can anyone stop the combination of Drew Brees (5,476 yards, 46 touchdowns), Marques Colston (80 receptions, 1,143 yards, 8 touchdowns) and Jimmy Graham (99 receptions, 1,310 yards, 11 touchdowns)? I don’t think so. As has always been the worry with the Saints, it’s their defense that has issues. But when you’re averaging 34.2 points per game, good for second best in the NFL behind the Green Bay Packers, it’s easy to think you’re invincible. The Lions score 29.6 points per game, led by standout QB Matthew Stafford (5,038 yards, 41 touchdowns), good for fourth in the NFL. You’re going to be hearing this word a lot this week: shootout. I’m excited about that. But I know any team can lose a shootout. But my bet is that the Lions will blink first.
My pick: Saints
Falcons (10-6) at Giants (9-7) — You gotta love the way the New York Giants finished their season against the Dallas Cowboys. It was essentially a playoff game. The outcome was predictable from a Cowbooys standpoint, but what I noticed was that the Giants’ defense had reclaimed their active pass rush, seemingly missing in action during the final stretch of the season. They claimed 11 sacks in the last two weeks, including six against Tony Romo Sunday. Prior to that, the Giants defense had totaled six sacks in the previous three games. And I haven’t even begun to rave about Eli Manning — an elite quarterback in the NFL — who finishes the year with 4,933 yards and 29 touchdowns. Or his home run hitting wide receiver Victor Cruz (82 receptions, 1,536 yards and 9 touchdowns). This team has the intangibles for a Super Bowl run. The Falcons, on the other hand, have only one solid win against a possible playoff opponent this season, beating the Detroit Lions in Week 7. Their thrashing of the Bucs in Week 17 doesn’t impress me. They have too many holes. Their defense is shaky, at best. They abandon the running game all too often (as do the Giants) and, sorry to say it, Matt Ryan isn’t as good as little brother Manning. It’s going to be a tough one for the Falcons, but it’s going to happen.
My pick: Giants
Week 17: 8-8
2011 season final tally: 135-83 (61.9 percent)
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